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The ECB is likely to endorse a dovish forward guidance even though the central bank is widely expected to keep Euro area interest rates on hold as the Governing Council struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. In turn, EURUSD may stage a larger correction as it breaks out of the range-bound price action from May following the failed attempt to test the 1. Moreover, the pullback from the June-high 1.
Additional Trading Resources For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q Forecast for the Euro Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for Read More My Picks: It was a wild week in US Dollar price action and with the Fed entering a blackout period ahead of the highly-expected rate hike later in the month, USD volatility is likely to continue.
The highlight for next week is an ECB rate decision; and below, I look at four markets with the aim of devising strategy around the US Dollar. While summer months were traditionally quiet period in markets, this summer is looking to be the outlier as a number of themes remain on center-stage. Next week, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by ten basis points.
The week after, the FOMC is highly-expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, and perhaps even more depending on how bleak their economic forecasts have become. Below are two setups on either side of the currency. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates deeper into negative territory with a ten basis point adjustment. And while rate cuts are rarely drivers of strength, the simple fact of the matter is that the ECB being dovish is nothing new.
The bigger question and perhaps driver around the single currency pertains to stimulus: If the ECB touches on this at their Thursday rate decision, the Euro could certainly break-down; but is this something the bank really wants to get involved with so close to a leadership change? Not to mention the fact that a number of question marks remain around the Fed and just how dovish they might be moving forward, so this could be an opportune time to wait for the chips to fall elsewhere before pre-committing to an action that a new leader is going to have to manage and maintain.
The early-portion of this week saw the pair spill down to fresh two-year-lows, catching support around the 1. But — provided that bounce remains below the Thursday swing-high of 1. Target potential exists around 1. If that price comes into play quickly, breakout-style logic could be adopted on the remainder of the position with trailed stops and quick scale-outs on the print of fresh lows.
To be sure, this has little to do with the fundamental backdrop of either the US or Canada. More pressing on a near-term basis, however, is the fact that this move appears oversold and thus far bears have shown no tolerance for a re-test of the 1.
This has led to the build of a falling wedge formation, with the resistance side of that setup already being tested through earlier this morning. Initial target potential exists around 1. Beyond that, secondary target potential exists around 1.
Prices have rallied up to fresh two-month highs and the door could remain open for more. A hold of support above the. Target potential exists at. Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.
A symmetrical triangle pattern is developing on the USD index chart. Following a move higher, that often foreshadows a continuation of the upward trend. Symmetrical triangle a boost for USD bulls A bullish symmetrical triangle pattern appears to be developing on the USD index price chart, and after a move higher that often leads to a further advance. It can be seen on the daily chart below.
USD Index Price Chart, Daily Timeframe January 1 — July 11, Chart by IG You can click on it for a larger image If a break higher does occur, the target would be almost two points above the price when the downward-sloping resistance line is breached. That is based on the gap between the support and resistance lines on June 25, when the recent low of The resistance line then checked in a Note, however, that a break downwards is also possible so USD bulls would be wise to place a stop just below the upward-sloping support line.
In the case of a break lower, the target would be 1. Looking for longer-term forecasts for USD? Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: Analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, A guide specifically for those who are new to forex , And you can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.
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